MATHEMATICAL MODELLING TO PREDICT POPULATION-BASED RESPONSE TO MICRONURTIENT INTERVENTIONS
W.Sharieff, S.Zlotkin, C.Schauer, M.Tondeur: Department of Health Policy, Management and Evaluation, University of Toronto; Departments of Paediatrics and Nutritional Sciences, University of Toronto; The Centre for International Health, University of Toronto; The Hospital for Sick Children, Research Institute, Canada;
One of the major criticisms of evidence-based medicine is that evidence obtained from one setting is inappropriately applied to other settings. To show that a given intervention would work in variable populations, clinical trials are repeated in several different settings. However, time and resources would be saved if the impact of a given intervention could be modeled to predict outcomes in variable settings. Methods We simulated a one year 4-cell clinical trial beginning with infants 6-24 months of age and longitudinally following them for one year. A fictitious infant population (N= 1,000,000) was created using Hemoglobin estimates taken from actual recent …